Isabel Schnabel Statements

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Friday 27 March

16:00:00

Monetary policy in times of geopolitical fragmentationspeech

2 Staff projections see lower growth and higher inflation due to Iran war Sources: Eurostat and Eurosystem staff projections (March 2026). Notes: The vertical line indicates the start of the March 2026 projection horizon. The solid line indicates published data, while the dashed lines indicate projections. Latest observation: Q4 2025 (second estimate). Real GDP growth in the euro area Sources: Eurostat and Eurosystem staff projections (March 2026). Notes: The vertical line indicates the start of the March 2026 projection horizon. The horizontal dotted line indicates the 2% medium-term inflation target. The solid line indicates published data, while the dashed lines indicate projections. Latest observation: Q4 2025 (second estimate). . HICP inflation in the euro area (quarter-on-quarter percentage changes) (annual percentage changes) -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 March 2026 staff projections March 2026 staff projections-Adverse scenario March 2026 staff projections-Severe scenario December 2025 staff projections GDP growth 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 March 2026 staff projections March 2026 staff projections-Adverse scenario March 2026 staff projections-Severe scenario December 2025 staff projections HICP inflation 3 Global economy is shifting from globalisation to fragmentation Sources: Bloomberg and ECB staff calculations. Notes: Dark yellow line denotes the 30-day moving average of the trade policy uncertainty index, whereas the light blue line represents the daily series. Latest observation: 16 March 2026 (reporting lag). Euro area–US bilateral effective tariff rate (percent) 1.5 10.2 13.1 12.1 10.5 Pre- Trump June 2025 projections September 2025 projections December 2025 projections March 2026 projections 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Trade policy uncertainty (index) Sources: Trade Data Monitor, White House, WITS and ECB staff calculations. Notes: The effective tariff rate is calculated by weighting on 2024 US-reported import values at the HS6 product level. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 01/16 01/18 01/20 01/22 01/24 01/26 April tariffs Iran war Supreme court ruling 16/03/ 4 Euro area remained resilient due to robust domestic demand and strong labour markets Real GDP and components (year-on-year percentage changes; percentage point contributions) Source: Eurostat. Latest observation: 2025 Q4. Unemployment rate and employment (lhs: percentages; rhs: millions of persons) Sources: Eurostat and ECB staff calculations. Last observation: 2025 Q4. 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Unemployment rate Employment (rhs) -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023 2024 2025 Domestic demand (incl. inventories) Net exports Real GDP growth 5 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Euro area United States China Chinese competition is weighing on euro area’s export performance Global export market shares of non-energy goods volumes (percentage point change since 2010) Sources: UNCTAD and ECB staff calculations....

ActorIsabel SchnabelPublisherEuropean Central Bank

Thursday 16 April

13:15:00Latest

Europe's successes and the path forwardspeech

2 Major progress in the euro area since the global financial and sovereign debt crises Macro stability C onvergence Financial stability 3 Macro stability: Inflation brought back to target without recession or financial instability Sources: European Commission and Eurostat. Latest observation: Q4 2025. HICP inflation in the euro area (annual percentage changes) Source: Eurostat. Latest observation: March 2026 (flash estimate). . -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Real GDP growth and unemployment rate in the euro area (quarter-on-quarter percentage changes; percent) 6 7 8 9 10 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 GDP growth (lhs) Unemployment rate (rhs) -11.1 11. Price- and quantity-based indicators of financial integration in the euro area (index) -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Price-based Indicator Quantity-based indicator Priced based indicator long-term average Quantity-based indicator long-term average 4 Convergence: Financial markets in the euro area have become more integrated Source: Bloomberg. Notes: Yields and hence spreads for Greece are available from March 2007. Latest observation: 9 April 2026. 10-year sovereign spreads over Germany (basis points) Source: ECB staff calculations. Notes: The price-based composite indicator aggregates ten indicators for money, bond, equity and retail banking markets; the quantity-based composite indicator aggregates five indicators for the same market segments except retail banking. The indicators are bounded between zero (full fragmentation) and one (full integration). Increases in the indicators signal greater financial integration. Latest observation: Q4 2025. COVID-19 pandemic Sovereign debt crisis Global financial crisis Introduction of the euro 20 70 120 170 220 270 2022 2024 2026 France -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Italy Spain Greece Portugal Global financial crisis Sovereign debt crisis COVID-19 pandemic Financial stability: Banks have solid capital ratios and are more profitable 5 Capital ratios of banks (percent) Sources: Bloomberg L.P. and ECB calculations. Notes: Tier 1 capital ratio as a percentage of risk-weighted assets, based on an unbalanced sample of up to 76 euro area banks. Latest observation: Q4 2025. Euro area banks’ return on equity (RoE) (percent) Sources: ECB supervisory data and ECB calculations. Notes: The sample are all SSM significant institutions. Latest observation: Q4 2025. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2022 Q1 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2025 RoE (weighted average) Interquartile range COVID-19 pandemic 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Tier1 ratio (median) Interquartile range Global financial crisis Sovereign debt crisis COVID-19 pandemic 6 Reviving growth is the euro area’s key challenge Integration Innovation Sovereignty

ActorIsabel SchnabelPublisherEuropean Central Bank